of the the ECMWF and NOAA global models, providing a dynamic cone of track.
#ECMWF HURRICANE TRACK UPGRADE#
These results illustrate that the vertical resolution is very important in model development for forecasts of hurricanes and other high-impact events and support the NCEP plan to upgrade GFS to 128 vertical levels from the current 64 levels. Tropical Cyclones: weather forecasts, weather risk management, hurricane. A second set of experiments increased the HWRF model top and found that results further improve when even more levels are added. This experiment considerably improved upon the track error in H215 and resulted in errors consistent with the ECMWF ensemble median.
#ECMWF HURRICANE TRACK UPDATE#
Normal NHC advisory update times are 3Z, 9Z, 15Z, and 21Z, with special. Sometimes 6Z best track data may not be available for weaker storms. Since the positions are valid at the time noted, it may take an hour for them to be posted to the ATCF system and then be downloaded by our site. Our first set of experiments here tested improving HWRF to 96 levels, which is commensurate with that in the ECMWF IFS ensemble. Normal ATCF update times are 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z. Meanwhile, the ECMWF IFS ensemble and deterministic forecasts both have significantly more vertical levels and outperformed H215 in terms of forecast track error for Joaquin.
Lower pressures are indicated in dark blue. The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. Beyond the good medium-range track prediction skill of the ECMWF model, its high resolution has shown potential for useful intensity forecasting. The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. Despite this, it has shown skill in forecasting Tropical Cyclones. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. The figure below shows the average NHC track forecast errors for tropical storms and hurricanes by decade beginning in the 1960s. The H215 configuration used 61 vertical levels and a model top of 5 hPa. The ECMWF does not alter its initial fields for Tropical Cyclones. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. We have used forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin, for which the operational NCEP HWRF model performed poorly, to demonstrate that increasing vertical resolution can improve hurricane track forecasts.
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